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Posted by hermancopystars on 07/06/2022
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Mortgage Rates Hold Mostly Steady at Recent Lows

Tue, Jul 5 2022, 4:14 PM

Mortgage rates hit 5.5% last Friday for the top tier conforming 30yr fixed scenario at the average lender.  That was the lowest since June 8th, just…

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Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance

Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM

Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance

Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading …

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Bonds Begin NFP Week Near Best Levels in a Month

Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM

Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns… that is the headline at the moment–not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo…

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Rates Plummet to 3 Week Lows. Has The Corner Been Turned?

Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:18 PM

Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable ex…

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Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings

Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM

Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings

Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin…

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Bonds Think The Corner Has Been Turned

Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM

Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi…

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Rates Lowest in More Than a Week After Inflation Data

Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:45 PM

Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates.  As such, the mortgage market was waiting patiently for this week’s key inflation report released this m…

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Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data

Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM

Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data

This week’s data focus was all about today…

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Strong Start as PCE Inflation Remains in Check

Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM

PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June).  So far this morni…

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Mortgage Rates Cautiously Improve But Thursday is Anyone’s Guess

Wed, Jun 29 2022, 5:02 PM

Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds have been under tremendous pressure due to inflation.  As such, when a major inflation report c…

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Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations

Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM

Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations

US bonds found several sources of inspirati…

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“Trading It Out” Ahead of Thursday’s Inflation Data

Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM

Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t…

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Mortgage Rates Moderately Higher Despite Bond Market Recovery.

Tue, Jun 28 2022, 5:02 PM

After moving up sharply on Friday, mortgage rates weren’t significantly higher yesterday.  That represented a bit of a disconnect with underlying bond…

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Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues

Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM

Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues

Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui…

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Mortgage Rates Moderately Higher to Start The Week

Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:12 PM

Last week was significantly calmer than the previous week for rates (and many other things in the financial market, for that matter).  After hitting t…

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Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction

Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM

Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction

Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with…

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Sideways Range Taking Shape

Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM

As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace …

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Housing is Normalizing, Not Dying; Nice Rate Rebound After Last Week’s Rout

Fri, Jun 24 2022, 5:00 PM

In 2020 and 2021, housing boomed and rates plummeted at a pace that many considered to be unsustainable . 2022’s role is to take things back in the o…

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Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory

Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM

Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory

As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break…

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Staying Flat Would be a Victory

Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM

Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that  successfully confirmed…

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No, Rates Are Actually MUCH Lower This Week

Thu, Jun 23 2022, 4:06 PM

Most of today’s mortgage rate headlines suggest that rates are higher this week.  Nothing could be farther from the truth.  Well, a few things could b…

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Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength

Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM

Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength

MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe…

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Bond Bulls Running as PMI Data Confirms Rate Ceiling

Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM

A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s…

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Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains

Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM

Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains

Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US…

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Epic Knowledge Drop on Why Mortgage Rates Can Appear to Have Dropped by Near Record Amounts Recently

Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM

When rates jump by some of the biggest amounts ever to the highest levels in more than a decade, it sets us up for some equally impressive corrections…

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Strong Start on Weaker Global Outlook

Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM

Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields…  All of the above moved steadily lower in th…

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Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to Start The Week

Tue, Jun 21 2022, 5:04 PM

Mortgage rates surged well into the 6% range last week before quickly cooling down after Wednesday’s Fed announcement.  The average top tier rate was …

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Bonds Open Weaker as US Catches Up on Holiday Absence

Tue, Jun 21 2022, 11:52 AM

Bonds are starting out the new week just barely below the mid-point of last week’s big, volatile trading range.  Getting here required a moderate amou…

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Mortgage Rates Hit 6%. World is Not Ending. May Just Be Beginning

Fri, Jun 17 2022, 8:06 PM

In a year where mortgage rate volatility has been extreme, this week made everything else look tame by comparison.  While it will never show up in wee…

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Have You Heard The One About The Sideways, Volatile Range?

Fri, Jun 17 2022, 11:26 AM

It’s been the phrase we love to hate since late May when bond yields encountered firm resistance as they failed to break below 2.7% for 4 straight day…

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Decent Day For Mortgage Rates, Relatively Speaking, Despite Volatility

Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:37 PM

Mortgage rates are still in the process of bouncing back from an ultra-sharp spike to the highest levels since 2008 seen on Tuesday.  Clarity from the…

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Treasuries Thunder Back To Positive Territory; MBS Underperform

Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:23 PM

Treasuries Thunder Back Positive Territory; MBS Underperform

This morning’s headline suggested a sideways, v…

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Europe Hits Bonds Hard, But Sideways, Volatile Range Remains Intact

Thu, Jun 16 2022, 12:24 PM

As rates made their way lower in the month of May, our ongoing thesis was that gains would be limited by the fact that a true rally required many mont…

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Mortgage Rates Drop Sharply After Fed Announcement

Wed, Jun 15 2022, 6:48 PM

The pace of the spike in mortgage rates over the past several days has been nothing but staggering –especially considering it began when rates were …

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Big Victory After Powell Says Toss Up Between 50 and 75 Next Meeting

Wed, Jun 15 2022, 4:47 PM

Big Victory After Powell Says Toss Up Between 50 and 75 Next Meeting

Whether we’re talking about the past week, month or year, the war continues…

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Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

Wed, Jun 15 2022, 2:01 PM

Although overall Overall economic activity edged appears to have picked up after edging down in the in the first quarter, household spending …

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MBS Live Morning: Traders in Position For Today’s Fed Announcement. Volatility Guaranteed

Wed, Jun 15 2022, 11:24 AM

It’s hard to think of too many other Fed announcements with more potential volatility than today’s.  4 short business days ago, the market knew exactl…

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Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Into The 6’s

Tue, Jun 14 2022, 5:31 PM

Yes, mortgage rates really moved above 6% yesterday for the first time since 2008.  Yesterday’s coverage addressed the core of the matter (definitely …

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MBS Live Recap: Lock or Float Ahead of The Fed?

Tue, Jun 14 2022, 4:53 PM

Lock or Float Ahead of The Fed?

Ideally, you’ve been locking at app all month as the only argument for float…

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MBS Live Morning: READ THIS!!! New Rules For Choosing an MBS Coupon

Tue, Jun 14 2022, 12:00 PM

***REQUIRED READING for anyone who doesn’t fully understand why the 4.5 UMBS coupon is far better to follow than the 5.0 intraday (for now).***
The…

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Mortgage Rates Surge Well Into the 6% Range After One of The Worst Days in Decades

Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:57 PM

It’s hard to quantify just how bad today was for mortgage rates because there’s no quality day-over-day mortgage rate data from before 2009 (when we c…

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MBS Live Recap: One of The 5 Worst Days For Bonds in Over a Decade

Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:07 PM

One of The 5 Worst Days in Over a Decade

At one point today, bonds had lost more ground than any other day i…

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MBS Live Morning: From Bad to Worse as CPI Reaction Continues

Mon, Jun 13 2022, 12:53 PM

Bonds had two options after last Friday’s sell-off.  They could either take a few lumps and get back to the business of looking for a long-term ceilin…

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2022 is Already The Worst Year For Rates Since 1979

Fri, Jun 10 2022, 10:58 PM

2022 has already had its fair share of bad news for mortgage rates, but this week was not to be outdone.  It began as just another reasonably bad week…

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MBS Live Recap: Bonds Obliterated by CPI Reaction and Fed Fear

Fri, Jun 10 2022, 4:04 PM

Bonds Obliterated by CPI Reaction and Fed Fear

If the bond market is forced to digest a surprisingly hot inf…

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MBS Live Morning: CPI Delivers on Volatility Promise, But Not in a Good Way

Fri, Jun 10 2022, 12:42 PM

As feared, today’s CPI data has proven to be the most capable market mover of the week, by a wide margin.  Unfortunately, that volatility is playing o…

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MBS Live Recap: Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI

Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:37 PM

Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI

The end of the week is marked by a battle with 3-letter ab…

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Highest Mortgage Rates in a Month Despite Afternoon Improvement

Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:18 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher this morning as the bond market reacted to a new policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB).  If you’re thin…

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MBS Live Morning: Some Pressure From ECB, But US Bonds Outperforming

Thu, Jun 9 2022, 11:39 AM

As has been the case for most of the past 2 weeks, European bonds have been arguing for a move to higher rates and US bonds have been reluctantly foll…

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Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher. More Volatility Ahead

Wed, Jun 8 2022, 4:48 PM

Rates jumped significantly higher last week and have continued drifting up at a gradual pace since then.  The average lender remains in territory that…

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