Mortgage Rates Edge Back Down. More Volatility Looms

Mortgage rates moved sharply higher last week relative to where they ended the previous week.  In the 3 weeks before that, rates fell at one of the fastest paces on record, largely because the starting point was the highest level since at least 2008.  

In case it’s not clearly enough implied, things have been volatile!  The past 2 trading days (Friday and today) have been among the least volatile in several weeks, but that could easily change in the coming days.  The biggest reason for this is the scheduled release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday morning.  

CPI is the most important economic report for rates at the moment because it speaks directly to rates’ biggest hot-button issue in 2022: inflation!  It was June’s CPI release that was responsible for the extremely abrupt spike up to those aforementioned “highest levels since 2008.”  

Wednesday’s CPI has just as much power to cause volatility, but with the caveat that volatility can result in either higher or lower rates, depending on the tone of the data.

As for today, rates recovered a bit of last week’s increase, but not for any compelling reason.  The average lender remains in the upper 5% range for top tier conventional 30yr fixed scenarios.