Muted Mortgage Rate Movement so Far This Week; Big Risks Remain for Wednesday
The first two days of the week have been fairly boring for mortgage rates relative to recent volatility. There’s been a bit of friendly movement on both occasions, but not in the sort of magnitude worth getting excited about.
One potential reason for the lack of volatility is the absence of big-ticket economic data. Case in point, last week contained a few of the most important economic reports and the release of that data coincided with big rate moves.
In the absence of data, the bond market (which ultimately dictates rates) turned its attention to the scheduled auction of 10yr Treasuries. The 10yr yield is well-correlated with mortgage rate movement. Lower demand puts upward pressure on rates and vice versa.
Today’s auction showed slightly lower demand, but with the important caveat that the bond market had improved leading up to it. The result was a fairly flat day for bonds. Most lenders started the day with modestly lower rates, but several lenders raised rates back near yesterday’s levels after the 10yr auction.
This week’s lack of data ends with a bang tomorrow morning as one of the most hotly anticipated reports comes out at 8:30am ET. CPI, the Consumer Price Index, is perhaps the most important economic report of all at the moment. Depending on the results, rates could move significantly higher or lower by the time lenders roll out their opening rate sheets for the day.