Latest Markets Articles
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates hit 5.5% last Friday for the top tier conforming 30yr fixed scenario at the average lender. That was the lowest since June 8th, just…
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 3:36 PM
Strong Start Balanced by Potential Resistance
Bonds rallied early in the domestic session and again heading …
Tue, Jul 5 2022, 9:47 AM
Inflation fear/optimism vs global growth concerns… that is the headline at the moment–not just for the domestic bond market, but for the entire glo…
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:18 PM
Mortgage rates have been volatile in 2022. Most of that volatility has played out in the form of higher rates. The past 2 weeks have been a notable ex…
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 5:17 PM
Big Gains Intact After Huge Intraday Swings
Bonds had 3 fewer hours to trade on Friday, but ended up coverin…
Fri, Jul 1 2022, 11:54 AM
Bonds were tentatively ready to confirm a top in yields and runaway inflation in May, but hotter CPI in the Eurozone and the US caused one last revisi…
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:45 PM
Inflation is the enemy of low interest rates. As such, the mortgage market was waiting patiently for this week’s key inflation report released this m…
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 4:33 PM
Bonds Get The Rally They Deserved in Exchange for Cooler PCE Data
This week’s data focus was all about today…
Thu, Jun 30 2022, 11:54 AM
PCE inflation data painted a cooler picture than the most recent CPI report (the one that sent rates surging higher into mid-June). So far this morni…
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 5:02 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds have been under tremendous pressure due to inflation. As such, when a major inflation report c…
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 4:41 PM
Bonds Bolstered by Big Swings in Inflation Data and Expectations
US bonds found several sources of inspirati…
Wed, Jun 29 2022, 12:13 PM
Sometimes bonds head into a trading day knowing that some key event(s) will hold the potential to push rates decisively higher or lower depending on t…
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 5:02 PM
After moving up sharply on Friday, mortgage rates weren’t significantly higher yesterday. That represented a bit of a disconnect with underlying bond…
Tue, Jun 28 2022, 4:50 PM
Surprisingly Resilient as Range-Finding Expedition Continues
Bonds began the day in weaker territory but qui…
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:12 PM
Last week was significantly calmer than the previous week for rates (and many other things in the financial market, for that matter). After hitting t…
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 4:03 PM
Bond Market Defensiveness Justified by Weak Auction
Coming into the domestic session, bonds were weaker with…
Mon, Jun 27 2022, 12:31 PM
As rates moved up from the lows seen at the end of May, we viewed it as the confirmation of the broader sideways momentum that we hoped would replace …
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 5:00 PM
In 2020 and 2021, housing boomed and rates plummeted at a pace that many considered to be unsustainable . 2022’s role is to take things back in the o…
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 4:28 PM
Bonds Lost Ground, But It Was Still Sort of a Victory
As the day began, bonds flirted with the idea of break…
Fri, Jun 24 2022, 10:36 AM
Granted, the bond market lost some ground yesterday afternoon, but the more important takeaway was the day-over-day gains that successfully confirmed…
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 4:06 PM
Most of today’s mortgage rate headlines suggest that rates are higher this week. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Well, a few things could b…
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 3:53 PM
Big Intraday Weakness Against Backdrop of Bigger Picture Strength
MBS lost more than 3/8ths of a point betwe…
Thu, Jun 23 2022, 12:27 PM
A slew of PMI reports (Purchasing Manager Indices, which are essentially more granular, more timely, and only slightly more focused versions of GDP) s…
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
Despite Onslaught of Fed Speakers, Bonds Hold Solid Gains
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US…
Epic Knowledge Drop on Why Mortgage Rates Can Appear to Have Dropped by Near Record Amounts Recently
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 5:41 PM
When rates jump by some of the biggest amounts ever to the highest levels in more than a decade, it sets us up for some equally impressive corrections…
Wed, Jun 22 2022, 11:30 AM
Oil prices, Asian equities indices, US equities futures, EU bonds, EU equities, and US Treasury yields… All of the above moved steadily lower in th…
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 5:04 PM
Mortgage rates surged well into the 6% range last week before quickly cooling down after Wednesday’s Fed announcement. The average top tier rate was …
Tue, Jun 21 2022, 11:52 AM
Bonds are starting out the new week just barely below the mid-point of last week’s big, volatile trading range. Getting here required a moderate amou…
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 8:06 PM
In a year where mortgage rate volatility has been extreme, this week made everything else look tame by comparison. While it will never show up in wee…
Fri, Jun 17 2022, 11:26 AM
It’s been the phrase we love to hate since late May when bond yields encountered firm resistance as they failed to break below 2.7% for 4 straight day…
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:37 PM
Mortgage rates are still in the process of bouncing back from an ultra-sharp spike to the highest levels since 2008 seen on Tuesday. Clarity from the…
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 4:23 PM
Treasuries Thunder Back Positive Territory; MBS Underperform
This morning’s headline suggested a sideways, v…
Thu, Jun 16 2022, 12:24 PM
As rates made their way lower in the month of May, our ongoing thesis was that gains would be limited by the fact that a true rally required many mont…
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 6:48 PM
The pace of the spike in mortgage rates over the past several days has been nothing but staggering –especially considering it began when rates were …
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 4:47 PM
Big Victory After Powell Says Toss Up Between 50 and 75 Next Meeting
Whether we’re talking about the past week, month or year, the war continues…
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 2:01 PM
Although overall Overall economic activity edged appears to have picked up after edging down in the in the first quarter, household spending …
Wed, Jun 15 2022, 11:24 AM
It’s hard to think of too many other Fed announcements with more potential volatility than today’s. 4 short business days ago, the market knew exactl…
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 5:31 PM
Yes, mortgage rates really moved above 6% yesterday for the first time since 2008. Yesterday’s coverage addressed the core of the matter (definitely …
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 4:53 PM
Lock or Float Ahead of The Fed?
Ideally, you’ve been locking at app all month as the only argument for float…
Tue, Jun 14 2022, 12:00 PM
***REQUIRED READING for anyone who doesn’t fully understand why the 4.5 UMBS coupon is far better to follow than the 5.0 intraday (for now).***
The…
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:57 PM
It’s hard to quantify just how bad today was for mortgage rates because there’s no quality day-over-day mortgage rate data from before 2009 (when we c…
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 4:07 PM
One of The 5 Worst Days in Over a Decade
At one point today, bonds had lost more ground than any other day i…
Mon, Jun 13 2022, 12:53 PM
Bonds had two options after last Friday’s sell-off. They could either take a few lumps and get back to the business of looking for a long-term ceilin…
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 10:58 PM
2022 has already had its fair share of bad news for mortgage rates, but this week was not to be outdone. It began as just another reasonably bad week…
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 4:04 PM
Bonds Obliterated by CPI Reaction and Fed Fear
If the bond market is forced to digest a surprisingly hot inf…
Fri, Jun 10 2022, 12:42 PM
As feared, today’s CPI data has proven to be the most capable market mover of the week, by a wide margin. Unfortunately, that volatility is playing o…
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:37 PM
Bonds Consolidating at Higher Yields Ahead of CPI
The end of the week is marked by a battle with 3-letter ab…
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 3:18 PM
Mortgage rates moved higher this morning as the bond market reacted to a new policy announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB). If you’re thin…
Thu, Jun 9 2022, 11:39 AM
As has been the case for most of the past 2 weeks, European bonds have been arguing for a move to higher rates and US bonds have been reluctantly foll…
Wed, Jun 8 2022, 4:48 PM
Rates jumped significantly higher last week and have continued drifting up at a gradual pace since then. The average lender remains in territory that…